Whakatāne District Climate Change Risk Assessment

The Whakatāne District Climate Change Risk Assessment (a project which forms part of the Council’s wider adaptation work) has been completed and was presented to the Environment, Energy and Resilience Committee on 7 August 2025.

The report brings together local knowledge, iwi and hapū input and technical analysis to show where flooding, landslides, coastal erosion, sea level rise, extreme heat, drought and fire could affect people, places and services now and over time.

The assessment looks at the risks, limits, and uncertainties we face. It’s not property-specific and it doesn’t recommend particular solutions. Instead, it helps guide what adaptation planning and emergency planning we focus on, where upgrades are needed, and how we shape future plans.

This work supports Our Climate Pathway and the 2024–34 Long Term Plan and aligns with regional efforts by Toi Moana Bay of Plenty Regional Council and Bay of Plenty Civil Defence.

An online viewer will be released in stages later this year so people can explore the data. The Council will release the data internally first to confirm accuracy, refine explanations and ensure appropriate use. Staff will be trained so they can support the community and answer questions confidently. After this internal rollout, the online viewer will be released publicly in stages later this year. Community conversations will continue as we plan next steps together.

Read the full report below.

Whakatāne District Climate Change Risk Assessment report 2025 (11.56 MB)

*This report has been prepared by Tonkin and Taylor for the Whakatāne District Council Environment Energy and Resilience Committee. Whakatāne District Council does not accept any responsibility or liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, exemplary or punitive damages or for any loss of profit, income or any intangible losses or any claims, costs, expenses or damages, whether in contract, tort (including negligence), equity or otherwise, arising directly or indirectly from or connected with the use of this report. This report summarises work undertaken for the Whakatāne District Council Environment Energy and Resilience Committee and does not constitute Council policy. If excerpts or inferences are drawn from this document for further use by individuals or organisations, due care should be taken to ensure that the appropriate context has been preserved and is accurately reflected and referenced in any subsequent spoken or written communication. Whakatāne District Council has exercised all reasonable skill and care in preparing this report but does not accept liability for the use of this information by any other party.

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Understanding climate change risks in the Whakatāne District

Why is a climate change risk assessment for the region important?

A district climate change risk assessment will provide us all with a specific understanding of climate risks and assist our collective district and regional responses to make our communities more resilient to climate change.

It will also:

identify and highlight areas within our district where efforts to manage climate effects need to be focused
identify opportunities a changing climate could bring
identify gaps in our understanding
inform adaptation planning at a range of scale and by a range of parties, and build on existing adaptation planning projects in the district and region
support the development of Local Adaptation Plans for individual communities
help identify targeted action and further projects.

Our climate adaptation journey

Stage 1: Identifying and assessing climate risks: Working with Council experts, iwi, communities and other stakeholders to identify a wide range of potential climate risks. This collaboration helps us build a comprehensive list of issues to address and enables a technical assessment of climate risks across our district.

Stage 2: Prioritising risks: Working with individual communities to prioritise the risks identified in Stage 1 for each community. This provides decision-makers with the information they need to set priorities and allocate resources effectively for climate adaptation.

Stage 3: Developing local adaptation plans: Building on the prioritised list from Stage 2, communities and Council work collaboratively to create tailored local adaptation plans for the highest priority risks for each community. These plans will outline specific climate impacts to monitor and set clear thresholds for when action is needed.

Stage 4: Integrating adaptation plans into Council policies: Once the local adaptation plans are ready, they will be incorporated into key Council planning documents, including the Long Term Plan, the Whakatāne District Plan, and the Eastern Bay Spatial Plan.

Stage 5: Monitoring and taking action: We’ll regularly monitor and evaluate climate impacts, learn from our progress, and implement the local adaptation plans when thresholds are reached.

The Council has initiated a programme to identify the climate risks that individuals and communities in the Whakatāne District will face now and in the coming years.

This survey is in addition to the many community group meetings that are being held over the next six weeks. As you complete the survey, we encourage you to focus on the climate risks/impacts most relevant to your local area, your area of responsibility, your area of expertise, or your area of interest.

General climate change projections for the Whakatāne District

The following information from the Bay of Plenty Regional Climate Change Risk Assessment can be used as a guide to identifying climate risks within the Whakatāne District. Over the next century, we can expect:

Rising sea levels and coastal flooding
Rising ground water levels
More extreme weather (including heavier rainfall during extreme events)
Warmer summers including significantly more hot days (>25oC) and more very hot days (>30oC)
Milder winters with less frost days especially in inland areas
While overall rainfall during a year is predicted to remain similar to present rainfall, the rainfall will likely be more concentrated around the winter period, more intense when it does occur, and potentially lead to more severe flooding
Drought and fire risk will increase especially in the upper Rangitāiki and Tarawera catchments
Ocean warming and acidification

Snapshot of climate change hazards in the Whakatāne District
He whakarāpopototanga o ngā matepā huringa āhuarangi i te rohe o Whakatāne

The Bay of Plenty Region and Whakatāne District are already vulnerable to natural hazards including flooding, coastal inundation, and land subsidence (the sinking or settling of the ground’s surface). Climate change is likely to make the consequences of these hazards worse.

Map of climate change hazards in the Whakatāne District Marae locations State Highway Railway River and surface flooding Coastal Flooding

Adapted from the Bay of Plenty Regional Risk Assessment

Elements at risk

Communities and settlements
Whakatāne and other coastal settlements within Whakatāne District may be exposed to increasing coastal hazards.

Horticulture
Kiwifruit and avocado orchards on the Rangitāiki Plains may face increased flooding, groundwater rise and salinity stress. Orchards may also suffer from reduced winter chill, drought and increasing damage from severe weather.

Agriculture
Farms on the Rangitāiki Plains may face increased flooding, increasing heat stress and increased pests and diseases.

Forestry
Kāingaroa Forest is at risk of damage from increasing extreme weather, drought, landslides and fire risk, as well as disruption to logging connections due to flooding of transport routes.

Native ecosystems
Native forests within Te Urewera ranges and the frost flats are at risk from increasing temperatures. Increasing rainfall may increase sediment in rivers and cause sediment plumes to discharge, causing damage to coastal ecosystems.

Transport
The roading network may face increasing damage and disruption from inundation, surface flooding, landslides, slips and sea level rise closing or damaging many rural roads, State Highway 2, low lying roads (such as Wainui and Thornton Roads), bridge structures and culverts, increasing disruptions and maintenance costs and leading to people being isolated. The Murupara and Matatā rail lines and the Whakatāne Airport may also face increased damage and disruption.